Yemelin's fat. Spacek's fit. Markov's dying. Gomez's is apparently a liar (how else could he get injured if he was supposedly in such good shape?). You get the picture. Montreal is dying for hockey news, and this is what they came up with. My Dad of all people asked me the other day why i hadn't written anything in a while, considering how there was suddenly so much in the news about the Habs, and more specifically, about Markov's injury woes. He assumed i had a plethora of information with which to draw from. My first response was one of laughter. "What news? All this is is sensationalism at its best, your typical making-a-mountain-out-of-a-molehill scenario." Then i thought about it further and realized i did have a wealth of information to draw from. I could talk about how ridiculous the media is here.
Take RDS for instance. The day the news came out that Markov had had water removed from his knee, and that he was no longer on schedule to begin the season like everybody thought he was, panic spread like wildfire. People questioned the Habs doctors, questioned the organization, questioned Markov himself. This went on for a day or two until finally it seemed to be put to rest a bit. Markov declared that he wasn't worried, that he was more worried about the media (can't blame him). Probably the best and at least the most well-known sports doctor in North America, James Andrews, explained that Markov's affliction was extremely common among sufferers of this injury, and it wasn't anything to be concerned about. Great, I thought, nothing really to worry about, Markov may not be fit for the season's debut, but would be back not too long after that. I slept easy that night.
Then i woke up the next day and began to surf the net as i often do. Made the mistake of checking into RDS. The headline declared this: "Markov toujours dans la néant". Which roughly translates to "Markov still in the void." Obviously, like anyone reading this, I panicked, thinking that overnight Markov's little setback had turned into God knows what. The first paragraph of the article didn't exactly ease my worries, either. In a nutshell it basically said that Markov had not made any progress in his recovery in the last nine months. Cue more panic. Cue anguish. What does this mean? Is Markov going to have to begin his recovery process all over again? Will he be out till November? December? The whole year? But then i kept reading. Realized that there was no new news here. All it was was the same information from the last two days, just more scary sounding...
Welcome to Montreal. Welcome to hockey preseason. Welcome to madness.
Wednesday, September 21, 2011
Monday, July 18, 2011
Habs Summer Thus Far…
Cole
I’m not going to mince words here: The fact that GM Pierre Gauthier acquired Eric Cole, a fast-skating, big-bodied forward, pretty much makes this offseason a success. Anything Gauthier does from this point forward is figurative icing on the cake, because let’s face it: Cole was practically everything the Habs needed.
Cole, a 6’2 205 lbs power forward, is getting up there in age, 32, but after last year’s successful season (26-26-52-pts-82 games), doesn’t seem to be slowing down much. The Habs signed him to a 4-year contract that will take him to age 36, but it’s worth it when you factor in the intangibles he brings to the table. Though he may not be as physical a presence as he once was, Cole is not a player that is easily pushed around, a quality that the Habs clearly had the need for.
The team can defend the notion that they are not a small team all they want (their overall weight and height averages are on par with the rest of the league) but what’s important is the size of their top 6. Players like Gionta, Cammalieri, Plekanec and Gomez require strong, physical linemates to create space for them. Unfortunately, just being big is not quite good enough, as we saw with last year’s Travis Moen project.
When Moen lined up on numerous occasions with either the Plekanec or Gomez line, it quickly became clear that it’s hard to create space for your linemates if the defence doesn’t care that you’re on the ice. Moen’s inability to put the puck in the net (along with fellow Martin pet projects such as Tom Pyatt, Maxime Lapierre, Lars Eller and Benoit Pouliot) made it very hard for our small talented forwards to distinguish themselves offensively.
The addition of Cole, a proven 25-30 goal scorer, thus makes the team exponentially better. For not only did Gauthier acquire a top 6 forward, he acquired a top 6 forward that will make every player in the top 6 more dangerous, something I’d argue would not have been the case if they had signed Ville Leino instead, a potentially more skilled player, but not nearly as big and physical as Cole.
Budaj, Willsie, Blunden, and Trotter
Compared to Cole, these signings were not exactly what you would call exciting. Peter Budaj is a bit of a weird one, simply because I don’t think he’s that great. That said, maybe (hopefully) the Habs did their homework on this one and discovered that he plays better in a back-up role than as a starter. Budaj has played as a clear backup only once in his career, in the 09-10 season behind Craig Anderson, and his numbers in 15 games were decent (5-5-2, 2.64, .917).
It’s hard to really judge his performance last year since the entire Avalanche team mailed it in, in the last few months. I’ll hesitantly say that this is, for now, a decent signing. I think Budaj is an upgrade on Auld from last year, but unlike Auld, who’s been a backup for many years, Budaj will have to prove that he’s capable of withstanding the mental rigors of sometimes going 10-15 games between starts.
I think he’ll be fine, but just would have assumed that Gauthier would acquire a goalie more akin to being a backup, someone like Johan Hedberg, for instance.
Willsie, Blunden, and Trotter are basically depth/AHL moves. Willsie and Trotter were brought in to replace the offence lost with Dustin Boyd and Nigel Dawes leaving for the KHL. Blunden will probably start the year in the AHL as well, but may also have very real chances of playing many games with the big club.
Blunden is a big boy (6’3 207), and could be useful on the 4th line to add some physicality and grit. He also appears to have more potential scoring punch than say Tom Pyatt and Ryan White, who just yesterday signed a one-year, one-way deal with the club.
Though most of the team is pretty much set in stone, there will be some solid competition in training camp for the 6-7 D-man spot, along with bottom-6 duties.
On offense, look for Ryan White, David Desharnais, Mike Blunden, Matthieu Darche, Travis Moen, Lars Eller and most probably another soon-to-be signed forward (big winger or center) to fight it out for potential ice-time.
You could even throw Andrei Kostitsyn and Max Pacioretty into that mix, seeing as though there are no guarantees that either will be in the top 6 (Though you’d assume Pacioretty has the inside track on that spot).
On defense it will be particularly dicey for the bottom spots in the rotation. Yannick Weber seemed to improve leaps and bounds last year, but he’ll be fighting for ice with newly signed draft pick Alexei Yemelin (who goes back to the KHL if he doesn’t stick) and veteran Yaroslav Spacek, who, though clearly on the down-slope of his career, will probably not be riding the pine with a veteran’s coach like Jacques Martin at the helm.
Even with this potential logjam shaking up, don’t be surprised to see Gauthier go out and acquire another d-man just to be on the safe side, something along the lines of an Alexandre Picard (low-cost, low reward type).
I’ll do another Habs post the second we get another key player (yes, we could be waiting a while…).
Peace out
Thursday, July 7, 2011
Trades!
Or maybe more precisely in this case, theft! Because what else could you call the highway robbery that took place on July 1st, when The Washington Capitals traded goalie Semyon Varlamov to the Colorado Avalanche for a first rounder in 2012 and either a 2012 or 2013 second rounder. On the surface it seems like a somewhat fair deal.
Varlamov is after all an-ex 1st rounder himself, going 23rd overall in 2006, and has been nothing if not consistently good thus far in his career, with a record of 30-13-12, a G.A.A of 2.39 and SV% of .917. No the problem here is not that I think Varlamov isn't a promising young talent. The problem is that Colorado traded a 1st rounder to get him, a 1st round pick that should translate into at least a top 10 pick next year. Because let's face facts: Colorado hasn't gotten a whole lot better so far this off-season, and this coming off a year where they had the second-worst record in the entire NHL.
Colorado will argue that Varlamov will put them in the winning column on a more consistent basis. To that i say: is he at this point in his career much better than last year's Avalanche starter, Craig Anderson? Anderson you'll remember is only a year removed from posting a career year, playing 71 games and recording 38 wins.
They obviously see something in Varlamov, something worth giving up a potential lottery pick for. I don't see it, and few hockey minds out there do either. But what makes this trade so absurd is that the most coveted goalie on the free agent market, Tomas Vokoun, was available before this trade went down. Sure Vokoun is getting old (he just turned 35), but he's shown no sign of slowing down, his G.A.A. and SV% not wavering from 2.5 and .920 over the last 5 years (and that on a piss-poor team). And the Avalanche could have gotten him without giving away anything!
When Free Agency began, Colorado were among maybe 2-3 teams max in the league that needed a goalie. With a ton of money at their disposal (and a need to get to the cap floor) Vokoun and Colorado seemed like an obvious match. But, no. That would have apparently been too easy for their brain dead GM. Instead they went out of their way to trade for a goalie who still hasn't come close to playing a full NHL season, and traded away what should be huge picks next year. Adding injury to insult, Washington turned around and signed Vokoun to a one year deal for, get this, 1.5 million$!!! Literal chump change considering his pedigree and numbers over the years.
This could literally turn out to be one of the worst deals since Brian Burke signed Phil Kessel to an offer sheet, sacrificing two first rounders in the process. Colorado is nowhere near good enough to be anything better than a middling team next year at best, and at worst a basement dweller. Washington will be licking their chops all year long, salivating at the thought of drafting maybe 3rd, 2nd, or even... yes its very possible the Avs will finish dead last...
So who won this trade? WASHINGTON. It's not even close...
Another key trade that went down was between the Nashville Predators and the Toronto Maple Leafs, and again, I'm a little blown away by what went down. On the surface the trade looks bad, and when you dig a little deeper, it still looks like a steal. Here's the tale of the tape: Nashville sent Matthew Lombardi and Cody Franson to the Leafs for Brett Lebda and Robert Slaney and a conditional draft choice. It looks bad at first glance. Clearly Nashville gave up the two best players in the deal. So why did they do it?
Lombardi is coming off a year where he basically didn't play due to post-concussion syndrome, and his career going forward is in doubt. Nashville desperately wanted to get out from under a contract where they would have to pay him 7 million over the next 2 years, and in order to have someone take on this contract, they had to add Franson to the deal to sweeten the pot. This actually makes perfect sense. What makes no sense, to me anyway, is that Nashville were unable to get anything back besides a journeyman defenseman and a minor league player.
What happened here was one team (the Leafs) taking advantage of a desperate team (the Preds). Nashville, a small market team, needed to free up money to sign RFA superstar D-man Shea Weber this year, and make sure there was still money left over to re-sign Ryan Suter and Pekka Rinne next year. Toronto was more than willing to take on the extra salary, seeing Franson as a potential stalwart on D for years to come.
Sadly, this is one of those trades you don't want to see happen as a hockey fan, a trade that is made possible due to the relative poorness and richness of two teams. Nashville basically had to sacrifice one of their good young players because they felt that they couldn't afford not to. Toronto clearly wins the trade, and you can't really blame them from figuratively stealing candy from a baby. They too, are in desperation mode. Not financially speaking, but the pressure to get better in Toronto is palpable, felt only as much in maybe a handful of sports markets today. In the end, it's just too bad that this all happened to Nashville.
Despite their small market status, Nashville almost always fields a winning team, and just came off a very successful season where they not only made it to the playoffs, but took Stanley Cup finalist Vancouver to 6 games in the second round. Just goes to show that no matter how good you draft and manage a team, attendance numbers and TV revenues are even more important. All this begs the question: why the heck is their even a hockey team in Nashville? Gary Bettman says hi...
Varlamov is after all an-ex 1st rounder himself, going 23rd overall in 2006, and has been nothing if not consistently good thus far in his career, with a record of 30-13-12, a G.A.A of 2.39 and SV% of .917. No the problem here is not that I think Varlamov isn't a promising young talent. The problem is that Colorado traded a 1st rounder to get him, a 1st round pick that should translate into at least a top 10 pick next year. Because let's face facts: Colorado hasn't gotten a whole lot better so far this off-season, and this coming off a year where they had the second-worst record in the entire NHL.
Colorado will argue that Varlamov will put them in the winning column on a more consistent basis. To that i say: is he at this point in his career much better than last year's Avalanche starter, Craig Anderson? Anderson you'll remember is only a year removed from posting a career year, playing 71 games and recording 38 wins.
They obviously see something in Varlamov, something worth giving up a potential lottery pick for. I don't see it, and few hockey minds out there do either. But what makes this trade so absurd is that the most coveted goalie on the free agent market, Tomas Vokoun, was available before this trade went down. Sure Vokoun is getting old (he just turned 35), but he's shown no sign of slowing down, his G.A.A. and SV% not wavering from 2.5 and .920 over the last 5 years (and that on a piss-poor team). And the Avalanche could have gotten him without giving away anything!
When Free Agency began, Colorado were among maybe 2-3 teams max in the league that needed a goalie. With a ton of money at their disposal (and a need to get to the cap floor) Vokoun and Colorado seemed like an obvious match. But, no. That would have apparently been too easy for their brain dead GM. Instead they went out of their way to trade for a goalie who still hasn't come close to playing a full NHL season, and traded away what should be huge picks next year. Adding injury to insult, Washington turned around and signed Vokoun to a one year deal for, get this, 1.5 million$!!! Literal chump change considering his pedigree and numbers over the years.
This could literally turn out to be one of the worst deals since Brian Burke signed Phil Kessel to an offer sheet, sacrificing two first rounders in the process. Colorado is nowhere near good enough to be anything better than a middling team next year at best, and at worst a basement dweller. Washington will be licking their chops all year long, salivating at the thought of drafting maybe 3rd, 2nd, or even... yes its very possible the Avs will finish dead last...
So who won this trade? WASHINGTON. It's not even close...
Another key trade that went down was between the Nashville Predators and the Toronto Maple Leafs, and again, I'm a little blown away by what went down. On the surface the trade looks bad, and when you dig a little deeper, it still looks like a steal. Here's the tale of the tape: Nashville sent Matthew Lombardi and Cody Franson to the Leafs for Brett Lebda and Robert Slaney and a conditional draft choice. It looks bad at first glance. Clearly Nashville gave up the two best players in the deal. So why did they do it?
Lombardi is coming off a year where he basically didn't play due to post-concussion syndrome, and his career going forward is in doubt. Nashville desperately wanted to get out from under a contract where they would have to pay him 7 million over the next 2 years, and in order to have someone take on this contract, they had to add Franson to the deal to sweeten the pot. This actually makes perfect sense. What makes no sense, to me anyway, is that Nashville were unable to get anything back besides a journeyman defenseman and a minor league player.
What happened here was one team (the Leafs) taking advantage of a desperate team (the Preds). Nashville, a small market team, needed to free up money to sign RFA superstar D-man Shea Weber this year, and make sure there was still money left over to re-sign Ryan Suter and Pekka Rinne next year. Toronto was more than willing to take on the extra salary, seeing Franson as a potential stalwart on D for years to come.
Sadly, this is one of those trades you don't want to see happen as a hockey fan, a trade that is made possible due to the relative poorness and richness of two teams. Nashville basically had to sacrifice one of their good young players because they felt that they couldn't afford not to. Toronto clearly wins the trade, and you can't really blame them from figuratively stealing candy from a baby. They too, are in desperation mode. Not financially speaking, but the pressure to get better in Toronto is palpable, felt only as much in maybe a handful of sports markets today. In the end, it's just too bad that this all happened to Nashville.
Despite their small market status, Nashville almost always fields a winning team, and just came off a very successful season where they not only made it to the playoffs, but took Stanley Cup finalist Vancouver to 6 games in the second round. Just goes to show that no matter how good you draft and manage a team, attendance numbers and TV revenues are even more important. All this begs the question: why the heck is their even a hockey team in Nashville? Gary Bettman says hi...
Tuesday, July 5, 2011
Free Agency 2011: Trades and Signings
Free agency is a real shit show. Everyday there's a new signing or trade, so there is no good day to really start analyzing what is transpiring. So what I'll do is everyone once in awhile update you on the happenings around the league. I thought today would be as good a day as any, seeing as though a rather colossal trade went down last night: Dany Heatley of the Sharks for Martin Havlat of Wild.
Instant analysis: Both guys have their issues, which is no surprise when big name players are traded. Heatley is allergic to big games, aka The Playoffs. Why does a two-time 50 goal scorer always seem to disappear in the playoffs? After watching Heatley pot a measly 5 goals in 32 games, Sharks GM Doug Murray was clearly tired of trying to figure it out.
Havlat's problems are different. Playoff scoring? Well for starters, you have to participate in the playoffs to have a problem like that. Havlat has only made it to the big dance once in the last 5 years. The last time he did play though, in 08-09 with the Blackhawks, he performed well enough, recording 15 points in 16 games. Where Havlat errs is in his effort level from game to game. Known league wide for being a dominant one-on-one player, you'd think his stats would reflect his talent-level, but it rarely does. It's not that he's not productive: his .84 ppg is nothing to scoff at. He's just always a player that has left you wanting more, which is probably why he'll be on a 3rd team in 6 years.
So who wins the trade? I'd say both teams win. Heatley has shown me that he plays well when there's little to no pressure, and Minnesota, though packed each and every night, is far less a pressure cooker than San Jose, where finishing amongst the leaders in the regular season is clearly not good enough for their fans. Minnesota is dying to just play a playoff series, and getting a proven top end scorer is a smart move by the Wild.
As far as San Jose is concerned, I think getting rid of Heatley and his big contract is a good start, as they will save 2.5M a year with this deal. With the addition of Havlat, they got an asset they needed, speed, and lost an asset they maybe had enough of, goal scoring. Havlat is a better match with speedier centers like Couture or Pavelski, who Heatley had a hard time clicking with. In a sense, Heatley's fate was sealed when he failed to fit with Thornton, the ideal, east/west and cerebral center for Heatley.
For GM Doug Wilson, this trade is probably secondary to the one he made a week earlier with the same Wild. Wilson sent Devin Setoguchi, 2010 1st rounder Charlie Coyle and a 2011 1st rounder for defenseman Brent Burns. Though it may appear to be a large bounty to pay, Burns was truly the missing piece in San Jose's playoff run last year, a big bruising d-man who's also an offensive threat.
This is the kind of trade I've been expecting for a long time from the Sharks, a team that has always had a Stanley Cup contending offense, but never the proper balance defensively. Brent Burns is basically a younger version of Rob Blake, and there's no reason not to believe that Burns' presence will pay dividends in the playoffs this coming year.
Will getting Burns and Havlat be enough to put them over the top? Hard to say. I'm still not crazy about Niemi in nets, despite his inspired play last year, and Joe Thornton still doesn't scream "leader" to me. Definitely like the moves the Sharks made, but not calling them the champs just yet.
Tomorrow i'll talk about another big trade, this time between the Avs and Caps. Don't worry, this time i'll have a clear winner and loser for y'all...
Instant analysis: Both guys have their issues, which is no surprise when big name players are traded. Heatley is allergic to big games, aka The Playoffs. Why does a two-time 50 goal scorer always seem to disappear in the playoffs? After watching Heatley pot a measly 5 goals in 32 games, Sharks GM Doug Murray was clearly tired of trying to figure it out.
Havlat's problems are different. Playoff scoring? Well for starters, you have to participate in the playoffs to have a problem like that. Havlat has only made it to the big dance once in the last 5 years. The last time he did play though, in 08-09 with the Blackhawks, he performed well enough, recording 15 points in 16 games. Where Havlat errs is in his effort level from game to game. Known league wide for being a dominant one-on-one player, you'd think his stats would reflect his talent-level, but it rarely does. It's not that he's not productive: his .84 ppg is nothing to scoff at. He's just always a player that has left you wanting more, which is probably why he'll be on a 3rd team in 6 years.
So who wins the trade? I'd say both teams win. Heatley has shown me that he plays well when there's little to no pressure, and Minnesota, though packed each and every night, is far less a pressure cooker than San Jose, where finishing amongst the leaders in the regular season is clearly not good enough for their fans. Minnesota is dying to just play a playoff series, and getting a proven top end scorer is a smart move by the Wild.
As far as San Jose is concerned, I think getting rid of Heatley and his big contract is a good start, as they will save 2.5M a year with this deal. With the addition of Havlat, they got an asset they needed, speed, and lost an asset they maybe had enough of, goal scoring. Havlat is a better match with speedier centers like Couture or Pavelski, who Heatley had a hard time clicking with. In a sense, Heatley's fate was sealed when he failed to fit with Thornton, the ideal, east/west and cerebral center for Heatley.
For GM Doug Wilson, this trade is probably secondary to the one he made a week earlier with the same Wild. Wilson sent Devin Setoguchi, 2010 1st rounder Charlie Coyle and a 2011 1st rounder for defenseman Brent Burns. Though it may appear to be a large bounty to pay, Burns was truly the missing piece in San Jose's playoff run last year, a big bruising d-man who's also an offensive threat.
This is the kind of trade I've been expecting for a long time from the Sharks, a team that has always had a Stanley Cup contending offense, but never the proper balance defensively. Brent Burns is basically a younger version of Rob Blake, and there's no reason not to believe that Burns' presence will pay dividends in the playoffs this coming year.
Will getting Burns and Havlat be enough to put them over the top? Hard to say. I'm still not crazy about Niemi in nets, despite his inspired play last year, and Joe Thornton still doesn't scream "leader" to me. Definitely like the moves the Sharks made, but not calling them the champs just yet.
Tomorrow i'll talk about another big trade, this time between the Avs and Caps. Don't worry, this time i'll have a clear winner and loser for y'all...
Thursday, June 30, 2011
Habs Draft Recap
Well we knew we weren't going to get a player that was going to play anytime soon. In fact, almost every team save 3 or 4 were going to land such a player, so the goal in the first round was to pick someone that was loaded with potential, and one that played the brand of hockey that fit the Canadiens mold. In Nathan Beaulieu, the Habs snagged such a player, and maybe got a little lucky in the process.
Similar to Louis Leblanc two years ago, Beaulieu was ranked by many in and around the top 10-12 picks, and Gauthier was more than happy to select the big, slick, offensive defenseman. Compared to players such as PK Subban, Keith Yandle and Mike Green, you could probably guess why. And with a name like Beaulieu, he'll probably be getting even more hype over the next couple of years, despite the fact that he doesn't actually speak much French. What he does do is play a savvy, up tempo styled game, sees the ice remarkably well, and has improved in his own end every year in the Q. His first big test on the world stage will probably come this fall in the World Junior tourney. It will be a first glimpse for most Habs fans to see how he measures up against the rest of the top picks in this and last year's draft. Its still fairly difficult at the moment to really say how good this pick is, but its hard not to like it from what I've heard and read.
As for the rest of Canadiens' picks, well it's pretty much a crap shoot when you draft from the 4th round on, but I'll try my best to analyze them as a whole. What i took out of the Pierre Gauthier interview was that each selection feels a bit like a homerun type pick. They will all take a while to develop (3-4 years) but there may be a gem or two among them.
Their selection of defenseman Magnus Nygren from Sweden really has that feel. An overager (21 years old), He was a relative unknown commodity up until this past year when he was called up by Fajerstad of the Swedish Elite league. His stellar play (especially from an offensive standpoint) caught the eye of Canadiens euro scout Crister Rockstrom (ex Rangers scout), and after finishing the playoffs with the second highest point total amongst D-man, he got Timmins on board as well. After recently signing Rafael Diaz form the Swiss league and having prior success drafting then overage prospect Mark Streit, we shouln't be too surprised with this pick, nor should we be surprised if it works out well for the Habs.
Say what you will about Timmins' draft success, one thing is certain; he has a knack for finding good mid to late round picks in recent years. Names like Halak, Streit, D'agostini, Kostitsyn, Ryder quickly come to mind, all drafted after the 6th round.
The most intriguing pick by Timmins at this point is Daniel Pribyl of the Czech Republic, a tall lanky center (6'3 190) that could be a steal if he fills out and continues to improve. At last year's World Juniors, Pribyl posted an impressive 7 points (3g, 4a) in 8 games. His development may have taken a step sideways however, as he was not selected by a CHL team in the import draft. He'll continue to play in the Czech Elite league, where he'll most probably receive much less time than he would have otherwise.
Other draftees were Josiah Didier, An American d-man who fits Gauthier's profile of a rapid climber in the draft; Quebecois Olivier Archambault, who was the 1st pick overall in QMJHL draft two years ago; Darren Dietz from the Saskatoon Blades, a rugged D-man who impressively climbed the depth chart on a very deep squad; and Colin Sullivan, a smooth skating d-man that has been on Timmins' radar for a while as a potential late round steal.
Similar to Louis Leblanc two years ago, Beaulieu was ranked by many in and around the top 10-12 picks, and Gauthier was more than happy to select the big, slick, offensive defenseman. Compared to players such as PK Subban, Keith Yandle and Mike Green, you could probably guess why. And with a name like Beaulieu, he'll probably be getting even more hype over the next couple of years, despite the fact that he doesn't actually speak much French. What he does do is play a savvy, up tempo styled game, sees the ice remarkably well, and has improved in his own end every year in the Q. His first big test on the world stage will probably come this fall in the World Junior tourney. It will be a first glimpse for most Habs fans to see how he measures up against the rest of the top picks in this and last year's draft. Its still fairly difficult at the moment to really say how good this pick is, but its hard not to like it from what I've heard and read.
As for the rest of Canadiens' picks, well it's pretty much a crap shoot when you draft from the 4th round on, but I'll try my best to analyze them as a whole. What i took out of the Pierre Gauthier interview was that each selection feels a bit like a homerun type pick. They will all take a while to develop (3-4 years) but there may be a gem or two among them.
Their selection of defenseman Magnus Nygren from Sweden really has that feel. An overager (21 years old), He was a relative unknown commodity up until this past year when he was called up by Fajerstad of the Swedish Elite league. His stellar play (especially from an offensive standpoint) caught the eye of Canadiens euro scout Crister Rockstrom (ex Rangers scout), and after finishing the playoffs with the second highest point total amongst D-man, he got Timmins on board as well. After recently signing Rafael Diaz form the Swiss league and having prior success drafting then overage prospect Mark Streit, we shouln't be too surprised with this pick, nor should we be surprised if it works out well for the Habs.
Say what you will about Timmins' draft success, one thing is certain; he has a knack for finding good mid to late round picks in recent years. Names like Halak, Streit, D'agostini, Kostitsyn, Ryder quickly come to mind, all drafted after the 6th round.
The most intriguing pick by Timmins at this point is Daniel Pribyl of the Czech Republic, a tall lanky center (6'3 190) that could be a steal if he fills out and continues to improve. At last year's World Juniors, Pribyl posted an impressive 7 points (3g, 4a) in 8 games. His development may have taken a step sideways however, as he was not selected by a CHL team in the import draft. He'll continue to play in the Czech Elite league, where he'll most probably receive much less time than he would have otherwise.
Other draftees were Josiah Didier, An American d-man who fits Gauthier's profile of a rapid climber in the draft; Quebecois Olivier Archambault, who was the 1st pick overall in QMJHL draft two years ago; Darren Dietz from the Saskatoon Blades, a rugged D-man who impressively climbed the depth chart on a very deep squad; and Colin Sullivan, a smooth skating d-man that has been on Timmins' radar for a while as a potential late round steal.
Thursday, June 2, 2011
Blue Jays Review
Coming in to the season, there was obviously a lot of uncertainty about how the team would perform as a whole. No one knew if the young pitching staff would hold up. No one knew who would end up closing ballgames (they still don’t). No one knew if Jose Bautista would be the same kind of impact player. The list of questions went on and on. After 2 months and 56 games played, some questions have been answered, some haven’t. Here’s how I’ve seen things unfold thus far:
Starting Pitching:
All things considered, a pretty decent start. This is a very young and talented staff that is still learning how to pitch. I know that may sound a bit trite, but it’s really evident if you watch each game. No one is doubting how good guys like Morrow and Drabek will be; but they haven’t figure out how to harness all their pitches and become solid second and third starters. Romero is already there in my opinion; he has the knack for winning. Whether the Blue Jays will be a contender by the end of this season rests on the shoulders of the rest of the staff, and if they’re able to put it all together.
Relief Pitching:
Good and bad. The middle relief has been great. The closers have been awful. This sounds like a broken record for the Blue Jays organization, and you’d think they’d get it right eventually. Between Rauch, Dotel and Francisco there has been no clear winner, and Farrell has been forced to pretty much go with a different guy each night. Who knows, maybe that will eventually become a winning formula, keeping all three guys fighting hard to win the coveted spot. As far as the middle relief is concerned, everyone has pitched very well. To put it into perspective, Casey Janssen, Jason Frasor, Shawn Camp, Carlos Villanueva and Marc Rzepczynski have a combined ERA of 2.20 in over 127 innings pitched (as of June 1st).
Hitting:
Can’t complain much. The Blue Jays are in around the top 5 in pretty much every major category, which is kind of surprising when you consider the amount of injuries the team has sustained thus far. Adam Lind, who’s been out for almost a month, was the Jays hottest hitter before he got injured, and is their second best hitter overall. Other key players like Bautista, Hill, Davis and Escobar have all missed time to an assortment of injuries, and Farrell has not been able to pencil in his opening day starting lineup since, well, opening day. Lind has begun a rehab stint in Dunedin, and should be back in the starting nine this weekend against Baltimore. It should be interesting to see how the lineup will shape up with his return. I expect something like this: Escobar-Patterson-Bautista-Lind-Hill-Rivera-Arencibia-Davis-Nix. Thames is swinging a good bat and I think he’ll be in the lineup as the DH against righties, and Rivera against lefties. Encarnacion is the odd man out at the moment, with Nix looking more confident offensively and defensively. I assume that Farrell would rather have Encarnacion at third rather than Nix, but Farrell looks to be a coach that will play the hotter player, regardless of a player’s potential. With Lawrie bound to come up sometime this year, one can only conclude that Encarnacion’s days in the organization are numbered.
If this sounds like the resume of a .500 team, it’s probably because that’s exactly what it is. The Jays currently sit 28-28, 4 games back of first place New York, and 2 games of Boston for the Wild Card spot. No one really expected the Jays to challenge this year, but I wouldn't completely discount their chances from what I’ve seen thus far. I see the offense continuing to produce and I also believe that key starters like Morrow and Drabek will be better as the season progresses. The biggest question mark for me is the closers, as games against the best teams in the AL East will come down to the final innings. If Francisco and Rauch continue to remain inconsistent, I really don’t see how the Blue Jays can compete. I guess we’ll just have to wait and see, and who knows, maybe a knight and shining armor will emerge to take over the ninth inning duties, a job that no one has done well in recent memory. At this point I’d probably take back B.J. Ryan. Yeah, it’s gotten that bad…
Monday, May 23, 2011
Habs summer decisions
Unfortunately, due to the fact he was signed at or after the age of 35 years, Yaro Spacek can not be bought out. That leaves the Habs with two options: play him or trade him. As much as I’d like to see him go, I’ll admit that Spacek is still a serviceable defenseman. Is he overpaid: clearly. Are there better options in our organization to fill his role next year, which would be the 5th or 6th d-man? Probably. Alexei Yemelin was recently signed by the Habs, and many believe he’ll be able to fit right in, despite his lack of North American hockey experience. Yannick Weber is a now a known commodity with the club, and I personally think he is ready for a full NHL season. With the likely re-signings of Andrei Markov and Josh Gorges, and probably one of Hal Gill, Roman Hamrlik and James Wisniewski, our D could look something like this next year:
Markov-Subban
Gorges-Gill
Spacek-Emelin
Weber
The Habs do have a surplus of money at their disposal 25 to 28 million, depending on if the cap goes up or not) but this money will need to be spread out over an abundance of players. The Canadiens have 18 free agents this summer, so there will be a lot of hard decisions to make for GM Pierre Gauthier. The biggest decision will be which area gets more of a facelift, the defense or offense. Most assume it will be the D, because this is where the greatest percentage of free agents lie, but Gauthier could just as easily bring most of the starters from last season back. The core of the offense will be back next season (Plekanec, Gomez, Gionta, Cammalieri, Pacioretty) but there are quite a few spots to be filled. The future of potential stars Andrei Kostitsyn and Benoit Pouliot is still unclear, and many would like to see the bottom 6 get more rugged. In a nutshell, there are many areas where the Canadiens could improve, and only so much money to improve them. In the end at least one of these areas will probably have to be sacrificed, and it will be up to management to choose the best way to spend their money.
In descending order, here is the list of priorities as I see them:
1. Solidify the D
The key here is balance. I think that the signing of Emelin was an excellent start, because he brings much needed size and physicality that the D lacked last year. Re-sign Markov and Gorges. Re-up Weber, and put him into the starting line-up. I think he’s ready to take on a bigger role with the team, and should be more prominent on the PP next year. One of Gill and Hamrlik will be back—they will play the role of veteran presence, which every D corps needs. If Spacek has to play, have him play a far more diminished role.
2. Make the bottom 6 harder to play against
A player like Ryan White is a nice start, but the rest (Eller, Desharnis, Halpern, Moen, Pyatt, Darche) were simply not a pain to play against. What you need are players that combine speed, physicality and aggressiveness, players that can sustain a solid fore-check, and give respite to the top line guys. The current conference finals have shown that the team who has the harder working bottom lines usually come out on top. This should be a main focus for the Canadiens going forward.
3. Finding another top 6 forward
It seems every year that fans cry out for that big rugged forward that can give a better balance to our smallish top 6. This year will be no different, where many will question whether guys like Kostitsyn and Pouliot will ever be able to get the job done, and whether it’s time to throw in the towel with these players. Hard to know, but personally I’d give Kostitsyn one more chance to prove his worth. Pouliot has the talent, but it seems he’s his own worst enemy. The bottom line is that there are many very talented players in the league, but the ones that succeed have the mental toughness to get over the hump. Pouliot may get over this hump one day, but I don’t think it will be with the Canadiens.
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